Source: Colorado Legislative Council; Chart: John Frank/Axios

Colorado is preparing to issue $4.1 billion in refunds to taxpayers over the next four years, new projections show.

State of play: Whether that’s a good thing remains up for debate among state lawmakers.

What’s happening: Democratic lawmakers and liberal advocates are renewing a push to bypass the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights and keep the surplus tax revenue, saying the money is needed to help the state build back from the pandemic and improve education.

• Early discussions involve moving certain revenue off the books.
• Another possibility is asking voters to keep the money through a ballot measure.

What they’re saying: “This coming year, taxpayers will see rebate checks, but those will come at the expense of better funding for public services that reduce costs for all of us,” state Sens. Chris Hansen and Dominick Moreno, both Democratic budget writers, wrote in a recent opinion piece.

The other side: Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, is cheering the refunds, saying they’re a sign of a good economy.

Conservative supporters of TABOR are blasting Democrats for wanting to keep the cash.

• “Colorado voters have said time and time again they want their TABOR refunds,” said Jesse Mallory, the Colorado director of Americans for Prosperity, a limited-government group. “The legislature should not ignore the will of the voters and look for loopholes to keep them.”

How it works: Under TABOR, the voter-approved constitutional amendment, Colorado’s tax revenues cannot exceed the rate of inflation plus population growth. When they do, the surplus must go back to taxpayers unless voters allow the government to spend the money.

The size of the surplus determines how it is refunded.

• For the current year through 2024, the surplus is so large it will result in a temporary reduction of the state’s income tax rate from 4.55% to 4.5% and a sales tax refund.

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